Beating the Theorem 2023 style:

The Brewers beat their anticipated win total by one game in 2022. In 2021, they beat their expected win total by 2. In 2019 they beat their win expectancy by a magnificent 8 games.

The Baseball Pythagorean Theorem predicts win loss record based on runs scored vs runs given up. Although it is great in theory, small market teams (including the Brewers) have often been able to beat the theorem and win more games than expected. Some may consider this luck, but when done year over year, there is probably something more to it.

To date according to the theorem the Brewers record should be 24 - 25 right now as they have 205 runs scored and 207 runs given up. Yet the Brewers are actually 5 games over .500 with a record of 27 - 22. How have the Brewers been doing this:

1. Getting blown out when they lose: This early in the season leaving Varland in to get smoked certainly affects your run differential. But the other thing this does is make sure your A bullpen is available for the games the Brewers are leading. The theorem being a non human mathematical formula doesn't take into account a team's willingness to let a pitcher get shelled. The Brewers have been awesome at getting totally demolished in some games.

2. Winning close games: The Brewers have been 8 -3 in 1 run games and 2-0 in extra inning games. The Brewers are better this year at winning these games. There is such a thing as situational baseball: reducing walks when in the lead, playing for one run when that may be all that is needed, Using the runner at second in extra innings to the greatest advantage. Along with those things the Brewers A bullpen has generally been really good to date and they have very few errors giving up late leads.

The reason you feel like the Brewers are mediocre is because they have been outscored. What the Brewers have done is return to their winning formula for beating The Theorem. So far it is working.