Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds

For the third time this month, the Brewers are going to face the same divisional opponent. A week after their last meeting, the two teams will meet for the final time during the regular season at American Family Field. It’s another clash for first place with the Brewers holding a slim ¹⁄₂ game lead entering the series. Though the Brewers hold the season series win, it’s the overall record that matters most. They’ll need to take advantage of these last few chances to put some distance in the standings over the Reds.

Offense

Brewers Lineup (2023 stats against Reds this season)

• C: William Contreras (.351/.415/.568, 41 PA in nine games)
• 1B: Owen Miller (.263/.326/.368, 43 PA in 10 games)
• 2B: Brice Turang (.130/.259/.217, 27 PA in nine games)
• 3B: Andruw Monasterio (.240/.321/.400, 28 PA in nine games)
• SS: Willy Adames (.280/.333/.760, 27 PA in six games)
• LF: Christian Yelich (.250/.333/.475, 45 PA in 10 games)
• CF: Joey Wiemer (.345/.472/.621, 36 PA in 10 games)
• RF: Sal Frelick (No PA against Reds this season)
• DH: Jesse Winker (.250/.400/.250, 10 PA in 4 games)

Reds Lineup (2023 stats against Brewers this season)

• C: Tyler Stephenson (.040/.143/.160, 28 PA in nine games)
• 1B: Joey Votto (.263/.364/.737, 22 PA in six games)
• 2B: Jonathan India (.189/.244/.270, 41 PA in 10 games)
• 3B: Elly De La Cruz (.167/.200/.167, 25 PA in six games)
• SS: Matt McLain (.293/.326/.415, 43 PA in 10 games)
• LF: Will Benson (.217/.400/.435, 30 PA in 10 games)
• CF: TJ Friedl (.136/.208/.136, 24 PA in six games)
• RF: Jake Fraley (.267/.364/.737, 22 PA in six games)
• DH: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (No PA against Brewers this season)

Probable Pitchers

Monday, July 24 @ 7:10 p.m.: Graham Ashcraft vs. Colin Rea

The starting pitcher lineup for the Reds will be the same as the last time the two teams met. First up is Graham Ashcraft. This is the third time the Brewers will face him this season. The Brewers got 10 runs off of him on June 3, but only one run on July 14. Ashcraft has made one start since the last series, allowing two runs in six innings against the Giants.

Meanwhile, two of the Brewers starters will repeat, but Colin Rea is not one of them. However, this will be a rematch from the June 3 game. Rea didn’t face the Reds in the last series, but did in the two before that. He allowed three runs in five innings on June 3, and then allowed five runs in 4 ²⁄₃ innings on July 8.

Tuesday, July 25 @ 7:10 p.m.: Andrew Abbott vs. Corbin Burnes

This will be the fourth time the Brewers have faced Abbott this season. Results have been mixed against Abbott. He held the Brewers scoreless for six innings on June 5. The Brewers had more success the next time, scoring six off of him in 4 ²⁄₃ innings on June 7. He evened out in the third meeting with only two runs allowed in six innings on June 15. Abbott pitched a gem in his last start, pitching eight scoreless innings against the Giants.

Corbin Burnes will also be facing the Reds for the fourth time this season. He’s pitched six innings in each of his previous three starts against them, allowing three, two, and no runs in those starts. Burnes hasn’t allowed a run in his last two starts and has 23 strikeouts over 14 innings.

Wednesday, July 26 @ 1:10 p.m.: Ben Lively vs. Freddy Peralta

The Brewers will also be facing Ben Lively for the fourth time this season. The Brewers scored five runs off him in seven innings on June 4, but only scored one off of him in his last two starts against the Brewers. Lively’s last start was against the Diamondbacks, with three runs allowed in 4 ²⁄₃ innings.

Freddy Peralta is making his second start this season against the Reds. His one previous start was on July 15, and he pitched six scoreless innings in that start. Peralta got hit pretty hard in his last start, allowing six runs in five innings on Friday.

Bullpens

Brewers Bullpen (2023 stats against Reds)

• Devin Williams: 0 ER, 13 K, 3 BB in 6 ²⁄₃ IP
• Joey Payamps: 0 ER, 9 K, 1 BB in 4 IP
• Elvis Peguero: 2 ER, 7 K, 2 BB in 6 IP
• Hoby Milner: 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB in 4 ¹⁄₃ IP
• Bryse Wilson: 0 ER, 0 K, 1 BB in 4 ²⁄₃ IP
• Trevor Megill: 3 ER, 2 K, 3 BB in 2 IP
• Abner Uribe: 1 ER, 2 K, 0 BB in 2 IP

Reds Bullpen (2023 stats against Brewers)

• Alexis Diaz: 0 ER, 6 K, 1 BB in 3 ²⁄₃ IP
• Ian Gibaut: 0 ER, 5 K, 1 BB in 5 IP
• Buck Farmer: 1 ER, 3 K, 2 BB in 4 IP
• Lucas Sims: 2 ER, 6 K, 3 BB in 5 IP
• Alex Young: 0 ER, 4 K, 0 BB in 2 ¹⁄₃ IP
• Fernando Cruz: 2 ER, 6 K, 6 BB in 5 IP
• Derek Law: 1 ER, 2 K, 1 BB in 3 ¹⁄₃ IP

Prediction

The Brewers are 8-2 against the Reds so far this season, but the Reds have won five straight coming into this series. However, that came during a ten-game homestand they had to start the second half of the season. Can the Brewers home crowd and strong results so far hold up? I’ll say yes and predict another 2-1 series win.

Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.