As they do every offseason, FanGraphs is releasing ZiPS player projections on a team-by-team basis. The site unveiled the 2024 projections for the Brewers on Wednesday morning.
The full projections can be viewed here, but here’s a summary of how the system views the Brewers.
The Brewers project as a team that will excel at run prevention while struggling offensively. That’s hardly a surprise given that most of their roster is unchanged from last season.
Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta are forecasted for near-repeats of their 2023 seasons. The former is projected for a 3.32 ERA and 3.36 FIP in 30 starts and the latter for a 3.86 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 29 outings.
Wade Miley (103 ERA+) and Robert Gasser (102) are projected for league-average run prevention in the middle of the rotation, and Colin Rea (96) once again profiles as a serviceable fifth starter. ZiPS is not much of a believer in Joe Ross, anticipating a 91 ERA+ in 16 games (13 starts). It prefers Coleman Crow, Evan McKendry, and Easton McGee more as rotation depth, projecting roughly league-average ERAs for each.
In the bullpen, Devin Williams is unsurprisingly projected for another strong season. Abner Uribe, Hoby Milner, and Trevor Megill are expected to be the best relievers behind him. Joel Payamps and Elvis Peguero are projected to take steps backward, profiling more as middle relievers than setup men.
Offensively, ZiPS projects more struggles for the Brewers. It expects just four players—Willy Adames, William Contreras, Christian Yelich, and Tyler Black—to hit at an average level or better by OPS+. Sal Frelick (99 OPS+), Garrett Mitchell (95), and top prospect Jackson Chourio (95) are forecasted as just below average with the bat. The biggest takeaway is that ZiPS expects a bounceback from Adames after a career-worst year at the plate and likes Black’s plate discipline.
Created by writer and statistician Dan Szymborski, the sZymborski Projection System (ZiPS) is considered one of baseball’s most accurate projection systems. It relies heavily on stats from recent seasons and aging curves but also factors in other on-field elements to project player performance.