Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox

After starting the week against the Cubs, the Brewers will finish out Chicago Week with the White Sox coming to town. The White Sox have had a difficult season. Their 15-42 record is the worst in the majors, and they are currently on an eight-game losing streak. A series like this one may seem like an easy one to sweep, but if the Brewers aren’t careful, this could end up being a trap series. That’s especially true with a trip to the league-leading Phillies on deck next week.

The White Sox offense has been near the bottom of the league all season. Their 73 wRC+ is last in MLB, and they are the only offense with a negative fWAR. They have scored the fewest runs in the league and are last in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. They’ve also taken some losses to injuries. Yoan Moncada is on the 60-day IL, Eloy Jimenez is on the 10-day IL, and Luis Robert Jr. is set to return from injury soon after his current rehab assignment. Tommy Pham has been one of the few bright spots in the lineup, posting a .294/.344/.429 batting line with a 121 wRC+. Gavin Sheets has also helped provide some stability with a .241/.354/.414 batting line. Prospect Corey Julks was recently acquired from the Astros and is 10-for-33 with six walks, three doubles, and a home run in his first 11 games with the White Sox.

The Brewers also have a significant advantage in the bullpen. They have the better ERA (3.61 vs. 4.10) and FIP (3.90 vs. 4.70). Michael Kopech has been the White Sox closer with 13 games finished and five saves so far this season. He also has a 4.01 ERA and 5.16 FIP in 24.2 innings. Also in the mix in the bullpen are Tanner Banks (4.68 ERA, 3.21 FIP), Jordan Leasure (2.66 ERA, 4.31 FIP), Tim Hill (4.05 ERA, 3.48 FIP), and Jared Shuster (2.70 ERA, 3.73 FIP).

The starting rotation is the one spot where the White Sox are close with the Brewers. Though the White Sox have the higher ERA (4.04 vs. 5.19) and FIP (4.38 vs. 4.72), the White Sox have a higher fWAR (2.7 vs. 2.5), as well as a better strikeout rate (8.47 K/9 vs. 7.97 K/9). In addition, the Brewers are going to see the White Sox top two starters in this series. The Brewers will counter with their ace and a rising rookie to match up with the White Sox.

Probable Pitchers

Friday, May 31 @ 7:10 p.m: Erick Fedde (2.80 ERA, 3.88 FIP) vs. Tobias Myers (4.43 ERA, 5.77 FIP)

Erick Fedde is the first half of the White Sox starting duo. He has allowed no runs in four of his starts and two or fewer runs in eight of 11 starts. However, he’s also had three starts, in which he has allowed five runs. He has a 58:18 K/BB ratio this season, with a season-high 11 strikeouts on April 23. In his last start against the Orioles, he allowed no runs in 6 ¹⁄₃ innings. He struck out six and allowed three hits and three walks.

Tobias Myers has been back in the majors after the injury to Joe Ross. He’s made a relief appearance and a start since his return on May 21. In his start on May 26 against the Red Sox, he had a good day. He allowed just one run in 4 ¹⁄₃ innings, but the Brewers offense couldn’t back him up in a 2-1 loss.

Saturday, June 1 @ 3:10 p.m: Garrett Crochet (3.88 ERA, 3.05 FIP) vs. Robert Gasser (1.96 ERA, 2.52 FIP)

The other end of the White Sox starting duo is Garrett Crochet. Though the ERA is higher, Crochet has been better than Fedde in some ways. He has a 0.93 ERA and 1.92 FIP in the month of May and is a strong strikeout pitcher with 85 strikeouts compared to just 14 walks. He has also posted three double-digit strikeout days this season. His last start was one of those, as he struck out 11 against the Orioles with just one walk and three hits. Unfortunately, he also allowed a two-run home run, and the White Sox offense couldn’t provide run support for him. The White Sox offense is averaging 2.57 runs scored on days he starts.

It will be hard for the White Sox to overcome that scoring deficit against Robert Gasser. He has allowed one or fewer runs in three of four starts. One of those outings was his last time out against the Cubs. He allowed just three hits in six innings with seven strikeouts. The Brewers offense has also been good to him, averaging nine runs in his starts. If Gasser keeps this up, he’ll be a permanent starter in the rotation this season.

Sunday, June 2 @ 1:10 p.m: Nick Nastrini (9.92 ERA, 7.85 FIP) vs. Freddy Peralta (3.61 ERA, 3.37 FIP)

On the other side of the rotation, Nick Nastrini is in his rookie season with the White Sox. He was acquired in a trade with the Dodgers last season and has been called up a couple of times this season. It’s been a rough start for him in the majors; he has allowed at least two runs in every start, including starts with five and eight earned runs allowed. His last time out on Monday was a bit better. He allowed three runs in five innings against the Blue Jays.

He’ll face a mismatch as Freddy Peralta will start for the Brewers. Peralta has had a rough month of May, with the Brewers only winning one of his starts. It hasn’t been for lack of effort from Peralta, either. He allowed just one run in seven innings against the Marlins on May 22, but the Brewers lost 1-0. He then had another good start with just one run allowed against the Cubs on Tuesday, but the Brewers were down 1-0 going into the ninth inning and ended up losing 6-3 in extra innings. Hopefully, Peralta’s luck will change as the calendar switches to June.

Prediction

This is a pretty big mismatch between the teams on paper. The White Sox are near the bottom of the league on offense and pitching. The Brewers offense is still near the top of the league. Meanwhile, while the starting pitchers may be closer, the Brewers also have a big bullpen advantage. A series win is very likely here, and so is a sweep. However, when a team has lost 12 of 13 and eight in a row, at some point they are going to break through with a strong streak. Let’s just hope that doesn’t come here.