Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Texas Rangers

The Brewers will be happy to be home after a rough series in San Diego, where they dropped three of four, finishing up a 3-4 West Coast trip. Their offense has cooled since their hot start, and while they’re still finding ways to win games—they’ve won five of seven series in June—their sizable lead in the National League Central has shrunk over the past week as the St. Louis Cardinals have been finding their way.

The Texas Rangers, the reigning World Series champions, have had a disappointing season. Their team has been mostly healthy, aside from the ancient Max Scherzer and the already-injured Jacob deGrom, but they have underachieved: they come into Milwaukee on Monday with a record of 37-40 and are third in the AL West. Several of the players who were stars last season have underachieved so far in 2024: Corey Seager, who likely would have won the MVP last year if he’d been healthy at the beginning of the season, has been good but not great (123 OPS+). The same is true of Marcus Semien, who has three top-three MVP finishes in the last six seasons; he’s still accrued about 3 WAR on the season but isn’t hitting as well as he was last year. Evan Carter (who is on the IL) has not been able to build on his promising rookie season. Adolis García started the season well but is hitting just .214 with an OPS of only .675, and hasn’t homered since June 2. Nathaniel Lowe and Jonah Heim haven’t been very good. Rookie Wyatt Langford is still settling in, though he’s been solid as of late.

The back end of the bullpen has been strong: Kirby Yates has been one of the best closers in the league (he has a 0.99 ERA in 27 ¹⁄₃ innings), and they’ve gotten solid contributions from several other relievers, including the ageless David Robertson, brief Brewer José Ureña, and Jacob Latz.

Probable Pitchers

Monday, June 24 @ 7:10 p.m: Freddy Peralta (5-4, 4.06 ERA, 3.62 FIP) vs. Michael Lorenzen (4-3, 3.00 ERA, 4.90 FIP)

Michael Lorenzen was a prominent figure during last year’s trade season, as he was traded at the deadline from Detroit to Philadelphia and then threw a no-hitter in his second start with the Phillies. He signed with Texas as a free agent late in spring training and has gotten good results so far this season (just a 3.00 ERA) but his underlying numbers think he’s gotten a bit lucky. He’s only striking out 6.3 batters per nine compared to 3.8 walks per nine, and he’s allowing 1.3 HR/9, his highest mark since his rookie season in 2015. Batters are hitting just .222 on balls in play against him, which is 40 points lower than the second-lowest BABIP of his career, so you’d expect some level of regression at some point, as suggested by his 4.90 FIP.

Freddy Peralta continued his Jekyll-and-Hyde act in his last start, as he had six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts after three straight weak outings. Peralta has been frustratingly inconsistent this season, and it’s been anyone’s guess whether the team will get Good Freddy or Bad Freddy with each outing.

Tuesday, June 25 @ 7:10 p.m: Bryse Wilson (4-3, 4.24 ERA, 5.15 FIP) vs. Andrew Heaney (2-8, 4.21 ERA, 4.11 FIP)

33-year-old Andrew Heaney has been around longer than I thought! He’s now pitching in his eleventh major league season. Though Heaney’s season ERA of 4.21 is a little worse than the league average (93 ERA+), he’s been much better lately. After a rough April, Heaney has a 3.26 ERA and 3.41 FIP in nine starts and one relief appearance since May 1, and hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a game since April 25.

Bryse Wilson has, like Peralta, been up and down lately. While he has been good more than he has been bad this season, he’s had rough outings in two of his last three starts and his season ERA+ sits at 99 (with a FIP that’s nearly a run higher than his ERA).

Wednesday, June 26 @ 1:10 p.m: Colin Rea (6-2, 3.62 ERA, 4.79 FIP) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (4-3, 3.14 ERA, 3.68 FIP)

With Max Scherzer (who made his first major league start of the season on Sunday) and Jacob deGrom on the shelf, Eovaldi has been the Rangers’ de facto ace. He’s been a good pitcher for five straight years, and that’s the case again in 2024: he has a 3.14 ERA, 3.68 FIP, and 9.5 strikeouts per nine through 66 innings this season. In 12 starts this year, Eovaldi has given up more than three runs only twice and hasn’t given up more than five.

Colin Rea will take the hill for Milwaukee in this one, coming off a start in which he was bitten by the home run ball, a consistent fear for Rea. In general, he has been very reliable this season, and his value to the Brewers is reflected in his 6-2 record. (Hey, I don’t ascribe to wins as a stat either, but in this case, I think it shows you that Rea has done what he’s needed to do to keep his team in games.)

Prediction

Part of me is concerned that, like with San Diego, the Rangers’ underperforming bats are going to suddenly find themselves in this series. Heim, Lowe, and García all have OPS+ numbers well under the standards they set last season, Seager has been merely “pretty good,” and Langford is heating up. But I’m going to say that the Brewers will capitalize on their return to American Family Field and will build on the good vibes from Sunday’s nice win to take two of three.